Elon Musk's rocket and internet business, SpaceX, is on a trajectory to land a mid-to-late 2026 IPO that seeks to raise over $30 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, making the deal essentially the largest public listing in history. The valuation amounts to a 100x revenue multiple that defies traditional aerospace comparable, though SpaceX's dual identity in both space transportation monopoly and global telecommunications might justify its appraisal. With Starlink satellite internet now generating 63% of revenue and growing explosively from 10,000 users in 2021 to over 8 million across 150+ countries, SpaceX has transformed from an experimental rocket startup to the world's dominant space infrastructure provider in just over a decade.
The financial trajectory might be the reason behind its astronomical projections. Revenue has grown from $8.7 billion in 2023 to approximately $14 billion in 2024, with estimates reaching $15.5 billion in 2025 and $22-24 billion by the 2026 IPO year. Starlink achieved positive cash flow in 2022 and posted $72.7 million in net income for 2024 after years of losses, with free cash flow to hit $2 billion in 2025 and $5 billion by 2026. Elon Musk has confirmed SpaceX is cash-flow positive, a critical milestone that distinguishes it from speculative space ventures. ARK Invest projects enterprise value could reach $2.5 trillion by 2030 based on Starlink's path toward $300 billion in annual revenue once fully deployed.
SpaceX's project pipeline extends far beyond Earth orbit, with Starship preparing for 25 launches in 2025 and five uncrewed Mars missions scheduled for 2026, followed by crewed missions in 2028. Near-term revenue drivers include NASA's Artemis lunar lander contract, Dragon spacecraft missions, and Starshield government contracts. While government contracts remain a huge part of its revenue at $1.1 billion from NASA plus billions from Defence, commercial operations now dominate, with Musk stating SpaceX's commercial revenue already exceeds NASA's comparable spending.
A 2026 IPO presents a profound strategic crossroads between quarterly earnings expectations and Musk's mission of making humanity multiplanetary. While public listing provides capital access and employee liquidity, it risks pressuring SpaceX to prioritise profitable terrestrial operations over longer-term capital-intensive Mars colonisation. The optimal strategy likely involves bifurcating: spinning off Starlink as a profitable telecommunications play trading at traditional telecom multiples (10-15x EBITDA) while keeping core space transportation and Mars development within a growth-orientated entity commanding premium innovation multiples. If executed successfully, SpaceX could mirror Amazon's trajectory in tolerating near-term undervaluation while building transformative infrastructure that eventually justifies abnormal valuations. The company positions itself not merely as an aerospace contractor but as foundational infrastructure for humanity's expansion beyond Earth, a vision that could make today's $1.5 trillion valuation appear conservative by 2035.
Sources: Reuters, Forbes, ARK Invest
Photos: Unsplash
